Why I work by referral, Tyler Smith Sacramento

For once California’s economy looks good compared to that of some other states.

A foreclosure crisis that has dimmed the state’s golden glow with images of financial ruin and broken government is beginning to wane, says a leading trade group for the U.S. mortgage industry.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that California foreclosure starts have fallen from a year ago – even as problems grow in Midwestern Rust Belt states such as Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Illinois.

“California is showing signs of improvement. We are seeing it on a quarter-to-quarter basis and year-over-year basis,” MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said.

Consider:

• In the past year California moved from fourth place among U.S. states for foreclosure starts to seventh.

• Mortgage delinquencies, while up from early 2009, fell slightly in early 2010.

• The percentage of California mortgages in the foreclosure process fell, too, during the past year.

California’s fragile improvements come as the national picture is less clear. Collectively, the longtime mortgage disaster areas – Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada – are becoming less of a problem nationally, MBA data showed.

“A year ago they had 45.3 percent of the problem loans,” said Brinkmann. “That’s down to 37.9 percent.

“We’re looking now at Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana. They’re climbing back into the list of problems,” he said. Those states have longer-term structural problems as their manufacturing economies continue to decline.

The new data confirmed improvements in California and the Sacramento area recently cited by researcher MDA DataQuick. Last month the firm said mortgage defaults have fallen for a year straight in the state and region, with foreclosures dropping now as well.

In hard-hit Sacramento suburbs such as Natomas, Lincoln and Elk Grove, residents see dwindling evidence of the crisis.

“All those houses that were vacant before were sold in the last year or two,” said Tyler Smith, a Keller Williams agent in Sacramento “A year ago it seemed every other house on some of those streets were vacant.”

Homeowners in distress are increasingly using short sales to unload their properties rather than losing them to foreclosure.

That’s helping preserve neighborhoods, because these owners stay in the homes until they’re sold rather being evicted and leaving an empty house behind.

Make no mistake: California’s long journey into a financial meltdown is nowhere near its conclusion, economists say.

They foresee prolonged trouble for the state economy and government revenues. At best, said Los Angeles economist Chris Thornberg, “The worst is behind us.” He added, “We have years yet of dealing with this.”

Like everything about the foreclosure crisis, even explaining a sense of improvement is open to interpretation. Thornberg said a fall in California foreclosure starts shows only that banks are taking longer to deal with late mortgage payments.

Jeff Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific, said simply, “This suggests we’ve reached the point where the number moving into delinquency equals the number moving out.”

Even that might be declared victory. More people are moving out of delinquency through short sales – selling their homes for less than they owe. And despite criticism of government loan modification efforts, the U.S. Treasury Department reported this week that 5,400 homeowners in the eight-county Sacramento region received permanent loan modifications since December 2009. Regionally, banks foreclosed on 4,300 more in the first quarter of 2010.

Any slowdown of last year’s frightful rise in delinquencies, said Michael, “indicates we’re close to a peak.”

The state still has a long way to go before it regains a healthy economy, 6 percent unemployment and a budget in the black, Thornberg and Michael agreed Wednesday. But for once, California is falling off lists of the worst performers.

Eventually, the supply of distressed properties will simply be exhausted, Michael said, adding, “The fire will burn itself out for lack of fuel.”

Sales prices are lower. There’s less home equity to tap into. Local services have been shredded by falling property tax revenue.

Such repo collateral damage is why so many owners who pay their mortgages on time are so grouchy.

Rob Wassmer hasn’t been affected so much. Fourteen years ago he bought an east Sacramento house – in the Fab 40s – cheaply at the very bottom of the last housing bust. His older neighborhood has largely escaped the brunt of 52,000 foreclosures across the Sacramento region since 2007.

But Wassmer knows the financial whipping people have taken in Lincoln, Elk Grove, North Highlands and Yuba City. Being an academic, he knew there had to be a number for the carnage.

“I knew this kind of research had been done. I wanted to do a study of Sacramento,” said Wassmer, chairman of California State University, Sacramento’s department of public policy and administration.

Wassmer analyzed $9 billion in sales prices from 36,822 home sales in Sacramento, Yolo, Yuba, Sutter, Placer and El Dorado counties between January 2008 and June 2009. Almost half were homes sold by banks. The other half were sold by regular folks.

He concluded that the foreclosed homes cost this one region of America $2.7 billion in price cuts and lost equity over just 18 months.

• The repos sold for $659 million less simply because they were bank-owned and differed from normal sales. They took $1 billion more in price cuts because they were near other repos.

• Both reductions then stripped $1 billion from sale prices of nearby homes never in foreclosure danger.

Collectively, these foreclosures cost local governments $27.1 million in property taxes. Reassessments will likely take more.

Said Wassmer, “This is a call for regulation.” He suggests a federal law to make lenders and borrowers meet in “structured mediation” at least once before foreclosure.

Few ideas have proved so far to be the solution. See the research directly at: >www.csus.edu/indiv/w/wassmerr/ResForeclosure.pdf

But wait. That’s the lower end, houses priced at roughly $300,000 and under, the zone of repos and bidding wars between investors and first-time buyers.

The higher end of the Sacramento-area market – say anywhere from $500,000 to $1 million or more – still has ample room to fall unless this economy surprisingly rebounds. So owners are whacking harder now on initial asking prices.

You can see that in new statistics from home search firm Trulia.com. The company says homeowners with listings in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo County have collectively reduced asking prices by $156 million since putting out for-sale signs.

About 40 percent of that markdown is from homes priced at $1 million or more. On average, these richest owners have cut their prices by $271,000 in El Dorado County, and $334,000 in Placer County.

Up in the real estate heights, it remains more expensive for buyers to get financing. The move-up buyer pool is smaller than ever as thousands at the lower- and mid-market have seen their equity shredded.

Those who can buy at higher prices are savvy and watching for capitulation, meaning “price reductions and opportunity,” said Bob Bronswick, head of Coldwell Banker’s residential brokerage for the Sacramento and Lake Tahoe region. For owners, it’s all about what Bronswick and others in the trade call “getting a little more realistic.”

Bronswick said the higher end is a little stronger than a year ago. Yet numbers from the Sacramento Association of Realtors show just 2.9 percent of October’s buyers paid $500,000 or more in Sacramento County and West Sacramento. At today’s pace, it would take two years to sell the houses in SAR’s territory priced at $650,000 or more, said association President Charlene Singley. The market as a whole has a much smaller inventory of unsold homes – just 3.2 months worth.

This story is repeated all over California. There’s a market for it still,” Bronswick said of higher-end homes. “But it’s a little bit softer.” In a business where no one likes to be negative, and inside an economy that hasn’t got its act together yet, that’s probably putting it – well, softly.

Rents headed down again

While we’re speaking of deflationary real estate, area apartment rents have returned to late 2006 levels. That’s after a yearlong slide that continued in July, August and September, Novato-based industry tracker RealFacts reported this week.

No wonder capital apartment complexes are offering “two-bedroom blowouts” or a four-bedroom lease for the price of two bedrooms.

RealFacts pegged average third-quarter rent at $946 for 76,000 apartment units in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties. That’s down from $974 a year ago. The average two-bedroom, two-bath unit goes for $1,062, said the firm.

Rents at large apartment communities are falling in tandem with higher vacancies as more people who have lost their jobs double up, live at home or rent houses from people unable to sell them.

Average monthly apartment rents and occupancy rates in capital-area cities:

• Davis: $1,354; 96.4 percent.

• Elk Grove: $1,098; 88.9 percent.

• Folsom: $1,138; 90.4 percent.

• Rancho Cordova: $814; 93.5 percent.

• Rocklin: $1,047; 93 percent.

• Roseville: $1,066; 92.9 percent.

• Sacramento: $929; 92.4 percent.

Jim Bayless bought the 1983 ranch-style home on the brink of foreclosure last May and spent about $42,000 for energy efficiency improvements. “This house is more efficient than most new homes being built today,” he said.

Bayless works with a company called GreenBuilt, which specializes in energy improvements in older homes. SMUD offered Bayless incentives to create a demonstration home to show other homeowners how to do the same thing.

SMUD Project Manager Mike Keesee said the wave of foreclosures in the Sacramento area offers an opportunity to upgrade thousands of older homes that would be remodeled anyway.

“If you built (energy improvements) into a 30-year mortgage, we estimate you could be cash positive from day one,” Keesee said.

Energy improvements on Bayless’ home include new insulation in the attic and one outer wall, solar hot water, solar electric panels, a heat pump for the electric water heater, retractable window shades, and a rooftop solar tube to provide natural lighting indoors.

Bayless expects the annual $3,000 SMUD bill to drop to $1,000.

The demonstration house is located at 8901 Quail Hill Way in Fair Oaks and will be open to the public Saturday Oct. 24 from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m.

 Thanks to all my workers here at the office, without them we could of not made this happen. Thanks to all the banks we service that trust us to service them. We all look forward to next month. Thank you!

SACRAMENTO, CA – Sacramento’s home prices are projected to drop 15.7 percent for the year, but that’s good news. Other counties are expected to fall 19 percent to 20 percent.

Much of Sacramento’s good fortune is due to the lack of foreclosures actually hitting the market. Banks are holding on to thousands of foreclosed properties in the Sacramento region. But, they are coming on the market in dribbles. So slowly, they are snatched up in a few days. That kind of demand is pushing up the price of homes that are $300,000 and under.

What was expected to be a flood of foreclosures is turning out to be a trickle. Michael Lyon of Lyon Real Estate agreed.

“Now that we’ve talked to the banks and found out what’s going on, they don’t have the personnel to do the processing to get it out,” Lyon said.

Lyon said the federal government has put heavy restrictions on banks that took bailout money when it comes to following through on foreclosures.

“There’s too much of a bureaucratic mess to really throw these things out on the streets so they’re coming in at a rather absorbable rate, which is keeping that low end, under $300,000,” said Lyon. “It’s becoming a seller’s market. I didn’t think I would be saying this for years.”

Lyon predicts that instead of seeing a wave of foreclosures sweep in over the next few months, it will likely now be a steady stream over the next few years.

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