Some day this housing crash will end. Judging from history, Sacramento’s ranks of developers will snap right back into growth mode – building a fresh wave of new homes.
The big question: Will this new wave of growth create a more urban, compact Sacramento, as many community activists and politicians hope? Or will it follow the time-tested pattern of past booms in the late 1970s, the second half of the 1980s and the first half of this decade, pushing ever-larger homes farther into farmland?
Perhaps it’s easiest to expect more of the same. Suburban development has for decades been Sacramento’s main growth industry, aside from state government.
During this decade’s housing boom, builders constructed 156,000 homes, condos and apartments in the Sacramento region – largely on empty land in suburban cities. Much of this last wave of housing on former farmland has proved especially vulnerable to shredded values and foreclosures – a fate far less common in established neighborhoods closer to jobs.
Still, signs of change were starting to emerge even before the housing market fell apart. Loft-style housing projects were popping up all over Sacramento’s central city. And construction had begun on two 53-story condominium towers on Capitol Mall.
So might visions of mid- and high-rise living in downtown Sacramento take off where they left off – just as it seemed the city was reaching a new level?
Looking ahead, analysts believe the next wave of residential growth in the Sacramento region – perhaps still several years off – might be different. It’s likely to roll in with expensive gasoline, higher home energy costs and lenders’ continued insistence on tight credit.
State and federal policies governing the flow of public money increasingly favor more compact, transit-friendly types of development. And as baby boomers age, they are expected to move down to smaller housing units.
All these forces could mean more people in the next wave of growth will live in smaller homes, and more may live downtown. But no one should underestimate the ethos of the Central Valley: People here like yards and space.
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